​​Will There Be a 6th COVID Pandemic Wave

Last fall many people started to think that the COVID pandemic was slowing down and Americans would be returning to normal life soon. Those people were wrong because by December 1st, 2021 the first case of the COVID variant named omicron was reported in the United States 1. The omicron variant is highly contagious and spreads quickly. Some people were shocked because even people who were fully vaccinated were getting sick. By January 2022, omicron had become the most prevalent COVID variant in the United States 2. It took only five weeks for omicron to become the dominant strain 2. In the spring of 2022, the media started to report that there were new subvariants of omicron emerging. The COVID virus has continued to evolve and mutate in order to survive and continue to spread.

NBC New York recently reported that the newest subvariant of omicron, named BA.5, is increasing in New York City (NYC) and could cause a sixth wave of the COVID pandemic. BA.5 was first reported in South Africa and Portugal. Some health experts have said that it is the worst version of omicron yet because it is highly transmittable even for people with prior immunity 3.

New York City epidemiologist Dr. Jay Varma says that COVID infections seem to have stabilized at a high level in NYC when they should be dropping. This is concerning because at-home testing has become popular and those cases are not factored into the official COVID infection numbers, therefore the numbers are actually higher than what is reported. This means that transmission is soaring and it could be the start of a BA.5 pandemic wave 3.

The city’s COVID numbers from over two weeks ago report that BA.5 accounts for 17% of infections. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), reports that nationally BA.5 accounts for 37% of cases right now. Dr. Varma believes that this could mean another wave is coming, “Experience from other countries means there will be another big increase in NYC COVID-19 infections, including among those who have had omicron in past few months” 3. It is uncertain how BA.5 will affect hospitalizations and death data. The big question is if the COVID vaccine boosters that have already been administered will be effective against BA.5, only time will tell.

References

1. “Omicron Variant: What You Need to Know.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 19 Dec. 2021, www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/omicron-variant.html.
2. Omicron variant: NYC report for January 13, 2022. NYChealth. (n.d.). Retrieved January 22, 2022, from https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/covid/omicron-variant-report-jan-13-22.pdf
3. NBC New York. (2022, June 29). Top NY doctor: New covid wave is starting, with the ‘worst version’ of Omicron. NBC New York. Retrieved July 1, 2022, from https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/top-ny-doctor-new-covid-wave-is-starting-with-the-worst-version-of-omicron/3752858/

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